There is another rising curve that demands us to choose collapse or hardship: the rise in global temperature. Just as our Chief Medical Officers of health use modelling to navigate the challenges of a pandemic, extensive modelling has been done around the world to understand the rise in global temperature, its implications, and the actions we can take to mitigate the rise. As with the pandemic, there is a point where we can expect system collapse: a rise in global temperature of 1.5 degrees that will cause climate destabilization on Earth.* The system collapse we can expect is our life support system. Unlike the pandemic, there is no ventilator available for our planet.

“The temperature curve is similar to the pandemic curve: not all of us will survive and if we don’t take action we can expect system collapse. ”

The temperature curve is similar to the pandemic curve: not all of us will survive and if we don’t take action we can expect system collapse. As with the pandemic, we have a choice between collapse and hardship. To avoid collapse we use modelling as a vital feedback loop to understand the consequences of our actions, and we must allocate resources to minimize and eliminate harmful actions and behaviour and maximize helpful actions and behaviour.

There is a lot to be done in a short amount of time, and it involves a lot of new work on the ground in our communities and cities. Just what we need to pull us out of the economic hardship we are experiencing.

The city I live in, Edmonton, is in the heart of Canada’s fossil fuel industry and is actively working for a climate resilient future. In 2018, Edmonton’s Mayor Don Iveson, with the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy, asked mayors from around the world to sign the Edmonton Declaration. Over 3400 municipalities in North America have signed the declaration, prioritizing the needs of cities—and their citizens—to address the impacts of climate change and make a just transition to low carbon energy systems.** In Canada, 501 cities have declared a climate emergency.***

In August of 2019, Edmonton declared a climate emergency, as have other cities across Canada. Edmonton is in the process of updating its five year old Community Energy Transition Strategy,+ using modelling (feedback loops) to understand how the community of Edmonton contributes to rise in temperature. Edmonton is organizing to reallocate resources to ensure that helpful actions are prioritized and harmful actions are minimized or eliminated.

“Edmonton is organizing to reallocate resources to ensure that helpful actions are prioritized and harmful actions are minimized or eliminated.”

Edmonton knows what it needs to do: reduce the local carbon budget of 19 tonnes/person/year in 2020 to 3 tonnes/person/year by 2030 and be emissions neutral in 2050.

City of Edmonton Community Energy Transition Strategy (see Spring 2020 Public Engagement Materials). NOTE: Not yet approved by City Council.

There is a lot of work to do over the next 10 years to reach a target of 3 tonnes/person/year. With the help of modelling Edmonton knows where its efforts are best placed. Here is a snapshot of possible actions that involve a reallocation of resources:

Low carbon city and zero emissions transportation. Invest in: expansion of transit system and electric vehicles, expansion of active transportation networks, and ensuring carbon neutral development.
Emissions neutral buildings. Invest in: clean energy improvement programs, grant programs to finance retrofits and new builds, energy improvement and retrofit programs for residential and commercial buildings, and expanded use of heat exchange systems.
Renewable energy and circular economy. Invest in: financial incentive programs to install renewable energy systems on residential and commercial buildings, support community and business models that advance renewable energy, district energy and decentralized energy storage, and greening Alberta’s electricity grid with wind and other renewable energy generation.
Carbon capture and nature-based solutions. Invest in: preserving and restoring natural areas to serve as carbon sinks, researching and developing new products for carbon sequestration and utilization.

Edmonton knows the work that needs to be done, but also knows where to put our effort, where to reallocate our resources. They have set us up to be wise about our actions.

The modelling is done; we know what actions we need to take to flatten the temperature curve. Cities across Canada have the action plans in place. To name a few, there are energy transition plans in Charlottetown, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Yellowknife and Vancouver. Cities are taking action and are poised for more action.

Flatten the Temperature Curve to Resolve Today’s Economic Crisis

Statistics Canada reported on May 8, 2020 that that 5.5 million Canadians have experienced job loss or reduced hours because of the pandemic.++ Many Canadians are looking for work. Second, we are reallocating public and private resources to mitigate the economic hardship of the pandemic. This involves, for example, subsidies to businesses to continue paying employees and the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit direct to people who have lost their jobs as a result of the pandemic. People are looking for work.

As we relax physical distancing requirements and encourage more economic activity, we are going to see the lines of work that have survived or closed, whether business, government or community organizations. Not all people will survive the pandemic, nor will all businesses or services provided by government and community. Even without the climate emergency, we will be living our lives differently. We will continue to reallocate our collective resources to accommodate these losses and we will have hard choices to make.

Climate modelling shows us how our actions impact the temperature of the earth. There is a point where we can expect far more disruption and death than the pandemic. We know where this point is and we know what actions we need to stop and which actions we need to amplify. Where we put our resources to alleviate the pandemic’s economic hardship should also flatten the temperature curve.

“We now know we are capable of snapping into action, as a species. ”

The lessons of the pandemic are already apparent. We have nifty modelling skills to serve as effective feedback loops for ourselves. We are capable of swift action, of being adaptable and creative. We are capable of relying on each other close to home, but further afield as well. Ideas about how to handle the coronavirus, in healthcare systems or in the wider community, spread from neighbourhood to neighbourhood, city to city, nation to nation, continent to continent. Most importantly, we now know that we are able of snapping into action, as a species, to save ourselves.

“Let’s reach out to who we are becoming, not who we have been. ”

Let’s reach out to who we are becoming, not who we have been because it is not possible to go back in time. We now know what it means to flatten the curve, and that even if we do, we can expect hardship. It is not possible to take no action and expect the problem to solve itself, whether it is a pandemic or a climate emergency.

Choosing hardship over collapse, with the temperature curve, means we will experience hardship. To avoid collapse we will:

Acknowledge the end of the carbon economy. This means we do not “prop up” fossil fuel industries and acknowledge and allow the grief associated with this ending.
Leverage the expertise in the fossil fuel industry. The knowledge and skills that have developed over the last decades will serve us well. These gifts need to be received and acknowledged.
Acknowledge the beginning of the transition to an emissions neutral economy. Endings are also beginnings and it is important to name, as best we can, the new. This helps us with a sense of direction when things feel upside down.
Reallocate resources to emissions neutral efforts. There is ample work to do to flatten the temperature curve. We need to allocate resources to develop and stabilize new energy systems.
Choose to support the transition, rather than support “what was”. This is a financial transition, but also emotional, mental, and cultural.

The bad news: pandemic and climate emergency.

The good news: pandemic disruption gives us an opportunity to reallocate our resources to avoid climate destabilization.

Let’s put our resources, our money, energy and intelligence, toward the actions we know we need to take to flatten the temperature curve. There is a lot of new work to do and we now have an opportunity to do it.

In what ways are you prepared to reallocate resources, create new work and flatten the temperature curve?

*United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

**https://www.edmonton.ca/city_government/environmental_stewardship/change-for-climate-edmonton-declaration.aspx

***https://climateemergencydeclaration.org/climate-emergency-declarations-cover-15-million-citizens/

+https://www.edmonton.ca/city_government/documents/PDF/CommunityETStrategyBoards-2020-02-lowres.pdf

++https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-627-m/11-627-m2020034-eng.htm

This is the fifth in the Cities are a Survival Skill Series of posts, about the new work we are generating in our cities to resolve our health, economic and climate crises.

Collapse or Hardship. About the example of healthy feedback loops we are experiencing with the coronavirus pandemic, and how healthy feedback loops enable us to wisely reallocate resources.
2 Stark Truths and 4 Collective Actions. We will not all survive and life is not going back to how it was. There are four needed courses of action: address immediate healthcare needs, address immediate economic needs, acknowledge grief and trauma, and reach for new possibilities.
New Work Regenerates Cities and Citizens. Consider that innovation is simply new work, and that the constant regeneration of new work is how we adapt to our changing world. New work allows us to adapt and evolve.
A Third Stark Truth. Adaptation is a survival skill. The world economy is in bad shape and will be for a while; our economic world is upside down. Our resilience depends on the new work we create, paid or unpaid, and this means reaching for new possibility.
The Other Curve. There is another rising curve that demands us to choose collapse or hardship: the rise in global temperature. As with the pandemic, there is a point where we can expect system collapse: a rise in global temperature of 1.5 degrees that will cause climate destabilization on Earth.

In the next post, Endings and Citizen Response-Ability, I will explore the responsibilities that come with realizing that “the game” that we understood has ended. It’s time to do the work of hearing what we don’t want to hear.

The Other Curve

Flatten the Temperature Curve to Resolve Today’s Economic Crisis

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